Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has been making waves lately with a series of standout performances. He led the Bucks to the NBA Cup Championship with a jaw-dropping triple-double (26 points, 19 rebounds, 10 assists) and broke Shaquille O’Neal’s record for consecutive 20-point games on 50% shooting—now at 26 games and counting. To top it off, the first round of All-Star fan voting revealed Giannis as the leading vote-getter for the second straight year, amassing 1,710,630 votes. Yet, despite his accolades, Giannis’ MVP odds sit at a tempting +1200 in some sportsbooks. Could this be the perfect time for bettors to take a chance on the two-time MVP?
The MVP race is tightly contested, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic emerging as frontrunners at -115 and +122, respectively. Giannis, however, trails in advanced metrics such as plus-minus, net rating, and Player Impact Estimate (PIE). The Bucks’ relatively modest 17-15 record also doesn’t help his case. But traditional stats, which still hold significant weight in MVP voting, paint a different picture: Giannis leads the league with 32.4 points per game while contributing 11.7 rebounds (7th) and 6.0 assists (29th). Compared to Jokic’s 31.0 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.7 assists, Giannis remains a formidable contender.
The case for Giannis lies in what might appear to be his greatest weakness: the Bucks’ heavy reliance on him. Unlike players on stronger teams, Giannis’ advanced metrics suffer because his team’s success hinges entirely on his performance. This dependency skews team-based stats like plus-minus and net rating, which naturally favor stars on better teams. For context, here are the plus-minus stats for the leading MVP candidates:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 12.2
Jayson Tatum: 9.3
Nikola Jokic: 9.2
Karl-Anthony Towns: 7.1
Victor Wembanyama: 4.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1.3
Similarly, team records further complicate Giannis’ narrative:
Thunder (SGA): 29-5
Celtics (Tatum): 26-9
Knicks (Towns): 24-11
Nuggets (Jokic): 19-14
Bucks (Giannis): 17-15
Spurs (Wembanyama): 18-16
Team performance undeniably influences MVP voting, and Giannis’ numbers suffer from the Bucks’ middling record. But dismissing his case based solely on metrics like plus-minus ignores the context of his indispensable role. Unlike stars with stronger supporting casts, Giannis carries the Bucks in every sense, making his traditional stats all the more impressive.
The bottom line? While advanced stats and team records favor other candidates, Giannis’ unparalleled dominance on the court and his team’s reliance on him make his +1200 MVP odds worth a serious look.
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